Natural Resources Canada

Map showing the probability that the Gypsy Moth will be established in Canada between 2000 and 2050

Organization
Natural Resources Canada

Author
Pierre Duval

ESRI Software
ArcGIS 9.1, ArcGIS Spatial Analyst

Data Sources
Data from Natural Resources Canada from simulations by the BioSIM application, data from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), digital elevation model by the U.S. Geological Survey, and ESRI maps and data.

Description
The map shows the regions of Canada that are currently and potentially vulnerable to the establishment of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.), in terms of probability of establishment. The gypsy moth is an exotic species that has become the primary harmful insect for deciduous wood forests, destroying millions of hectares in North America.

The CFIA has therefore established regulated regions for the gypsy moth represented by the zone with the white hatching. The modeling with the help of phenology models (Régnière and Nealis 2002) with a climatic change scenario also allows for projections of the potential distribution of the insect and its probability of being established in Canada until 2050.

Acknowledgements
Jacques Régnière and Rémi St-Amant, Natural Resources Canada